Roy's detailed analysis on why the boundaries are re-drawn the way they are

[Sammyboy RSS Feed]

An honorable member of the Coffee Shop Has Just Posted the Following:

The Singapore general election is coming soon. Some rumours say that the next election will be held on 12 September 2015. It could be earlier, in August after National Day or before the year is out.

The PAP ruling party has gerrymandered and changed the Singapore electoral boundaries yet again.

The changes were announced today.

Here is a quick analysis on the changes in the electoral boundaries.

(1) For my Sembawang friends, Sembawang Central – where I live – was moved from Sembawang GRC in 2006 to Nee Soon GRC in 2011 and back to Sembawang GRC again in 2015.

(2) The PAP believes that it will lose the East Coast GRC to the Worker’s Party. It moved Serangoon Island from the East Coast GRC to Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC. Looks like the PAP wants to develop Serangoon Island in the next 5 years and does not want any hindrance.

(3) The PAP also looks like it believes that it will lose Nee Soon GRC to the Worker’s Party. It moved Simpang and Seletar Island to Sembawang GRC, in the hope that it can develop the Woodlands-Sembawang corridor with free rein, which Lee Hsien Loong announced at last year’s National Day Rally.

(4) The PAP also deleted Joo Chiat SMC and Moulmein-Kallang GRC because it knows that it will lose them to the Worker’s Party – the Worker’s Party won more than 40% of the votes in both constituencies at the last election.

(5) For the three other key development areas that the PAP has planned for – Jurong, Tampines and West Coast GRCs – the PAP has consolidated these areas and largely left them intact, which means they will likely field who they consider to be their strong candidates in these areas. Deputy Prime Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam currently helms the Jurong GRC.

From this, you can see that how the PAP redraws the electoral boundaries is broadly dependent on three things:

– First, it is dependent on making sure that the constituencies which posed the biggest threat to the PAP at the previous election are deleted – which we already know.

– Second, the PAP already has development plans in mind and have redrawn the boundaries to allow it (it hopes) to hold on to certain constituencies so that it can fully develop these areas according to its wants. In that sense, the PAP has parcelled out Singapore into areas it considers important to keep for its growth-at-all-cost model, and those which it considers less important.

And if you understand what it means when the PAP wants to develop these areas, it means that the PAP wants to build more shopping malls, increase rents, increase prices, increase revenue for themselves and allow themselves to get rich. So, you want to let them?

– Third, you can see that the PAP believes that it will lose about 10% of the votes at the next election, as most of the constituencies with boundary changes are those which the opposition won more than 40% at the last election, and which the PAP believes it will lose.

And if you track the past three elections, for constituencies where their boundaries did not change, the PAP lost an average of 10% in these constituencies at each subsequent election, which means that at the next election, the PAP will indeed lose another 10% of the votes.

The PAP won 60% of the total votes at the last election. So going along these lines, based on the PAP’s prediction, it means that they would likely lose 10% of the votes and only win about 50% of the votes at the next election.

It would most likely be a 50-50 at the next election for the PAP and the opposition. This is a chance for us Singaporeans to set things right!

So, Singaporeans, you want to help the PAP lose and help Singaporeans win?

Here's how...........http://thehearttruths.com/2015/07/24...election-2015/


Click here to view the whole thread at www.sammyboy.com.